It helps to know your chances of winning when playing any casino game. In blackjack, the starting house edge is 8%, meaning you have 92% winning odds. However, it's possible to reduce the house edge to less than 1% using the basic blackjack strategy.
Probability to bust on an extra card
Busting simply means getting a hand total bigger than 21 and losing the game as a result. The odds of hitting and busting are estimated to be 28% of the time. There's no risk of busting if the hand total is 11 or below. As indicated in the table, higher hand totals are most likely to bust.
Online BlackJack - probability to bust on an extra card
Hand Value |
Probability |
11 or lower |
0% |
12 |
31% |
13 |
39% |
14 |
56% |
15 |
58% |
16 |
62% |
17 |
69% |
18 |
77% |
19 |
85% |
20 |
92% |
21 |
100% |
The dealer's probability to bust
The dealer's probability of busting can be calculated by examining the first card. It's also essential to consider whether the dealer is standing or hitting on 17s. Look at the following table for the dealer's busting probabilities.
Online blackjack - dealers probability to bust
Dealer’s card |
Probability when standing on 17s |
Probability when hitting on 17s |
Ace |
17% |
20% |
2 |
35% |
36% |
3 |
37% |
38% |
4 |
40% |
40% |
5 |
42% |
42% |
6 |
42% |
44% |
7 |
26% |
26% |
8 |
24% |
24% |
9 |
23% |
23% |
10 |
23% |
23% |